Alabama vs Arkansas Prediction

Let me start this post with a Roll Tide! I love college football. The Tide hosts the Hogs this week. Lots of people, by that I mean people who keep up with things like this, think the game will be close. Most bloggers come down on the side of a Bama win with a late score. That may turn out to be correct, but my hunch is that this game will not be close.

Of course anything can happen, which is one of the main reasons people love this sport. But Saban’s version of the Tide since 2008 has been predictable. They are loaded with talent, coached at an extremely high level, and placed in a scheme to win. Watching the Tide on Saturdays is like watching so many NFL games, nothing is a gamble and a handful of plays make the difference in the final score of the more competitive games. Some would call this boring. But a boring win is better than an exciting loss any day.

The 2011 version of the Tide looks like a copy from last year; suffocating defense, strong running game, a few deep passes, and a heavy dose of dink and dunk passing. Keep it simple. Keep it safe. Trust the players to outperform the guy on the other side. This is the recipe for a top ten team. If a few close plays break in the Tide’s favor Crimson will once again fill the Superdome in New Orleans next January.

But back to this week’s game. The Razorbacks gave up 482 yards to Troy last week. That might be all you need to know. Several Hog writers say a lot of those yards came late in the game, which is marginally true, but there will be a second half in this week’s game too. I don’t put much weight in garbage time numbers, but nearly 500 yards to a Sunbelt team is hard to justify for any SEC team which claims a shot at the conference title. The fact is Troy put up 350 of their yards in the first three quarters. Not exactly garbage time in my book. Troy also missed two field goals and was intercepted early in the fourth quarter. At the time of the interception it was a ten point game. If the Bama ground game gets going on Saturday those Razorback second stringers will need to play late in the game, and if they thought Troy was a challenge wait until Eddie Lacey and Jalston Fowler start bringing the fourth quarter show down the hill.

A few great catches or a couple of busted coverages, or maybe a special teams score, could blow my prediction to pieces. But for now I say the Tide’s defense will hold the Hogs down. I can’t say the same for the Arkansas defense.

Bama 28 Arkansas 14